New York Knicks at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints26
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Josh HartRebounds13
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints27
- Jalen SuggsAssists3
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–85
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–85
- Q40.0Magic offensive team rebound108–85
- Q40.0Trevelin Queen misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot108–85
- Q419.1Landry Shamet makes 1-foot jumper108–85
- Q421.2Cole Anthony bad pass (Landry Shamet steals)106–85
- Q432.1Jericho Sims lost ball turnover (Trevelin Queen steals)106–85
- Q434.1Jericho Sims offensive rebound106–85
- Q439.2Cameron Payne misses 25-foot three point jumper106–85
- Q446.1Miles McBride offensive rebound106–85
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:19Trevelin Queen makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Isaac assists)NY 31 – 34 ORL · ORL 35% → 42% +7ORL 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q24:27Jalen Suggs makes 28-foot three point jumper (Goga Bitadze assists)NY 41 – 43 ORL · ORL 34% → 41% +8ORL 34% → 41%+8 pts
- Q23:42Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 12-foot two point shot (Tristan da Silva assists)NY 44 – 45 ORL · ORL 31% → 39% +8ORL 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q311:18Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)NY 54 – 57 ORL · ORL 37% → 46% +9ORL 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q31:38Trevelin Queen makes 26-foot three pointerNY 74 – 68 ORL · ORL 13% → 20% +7ORL 13% → 20%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML NY -240 / ORL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -4.5
- NY 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NY: Elo 66.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NY -212
- ORL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 110.0 – 103.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1590 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | −58 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +121 Elo | NY 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 70.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 70.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 106.727th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 103.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.2 | Margin | +3.28th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.1 | Offense rating | 107.725th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 99.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 5th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 12–33rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–15 | 20–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 14–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 6–7 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–3 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.