New York Knicks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints32
- Josh HartAssists10
- Josh HartRebounds15
Wizards- Jonas ValanciunasPoints22
- Malcolm BrogdonAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–106
- Q421.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound126–106
- Q425.0Tristan Vukcevic misses 27-foot three point jumper126–106
- Q435.1Landry Shamet makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jacob Toppin assists)126–106
- Q440.1Jacob Toppin defensive rebound123–106
- Q442.0Johnny Davis misses 7-foot two point shot123–106
- Q452.0Matt Ryan enters the game for Josh Hart123–106
- Q452.0Josh Hart personal foul123–106
- Q455.0Anthony Gill defensive rebound123–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:33Carlton Carrington makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotNY 63 – 63 WSH · WSH 17% → 24% +7WSH 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q39:03OG Anunoby makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 66 – 63 WSH · NY 76% → 82% +7NY 76% → 82%+7 pts
- Q33:54Mikal Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 84 – 80 WSH · NY 76% → 83% +8NY 76% → 83%+8 pts
- Q32:51Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jared Butler assists)NY 84 – 83 WSH · WSH 17% → 25% +8WSH 17% → 25%+8 pts
- Q32:27Josh Hart makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 87 – 83 WSH · NY 75% → 83% +8NY 75% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- NY -12.5
- ML NY -900 / WSH +550
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -12
- NY 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- NY: Elo 87.2%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -585
- WSH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 120.5 – 108.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1603 | 1312 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −43 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +333 Elo | NY 87.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 88.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 88.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 108.424th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.0 | Points allowed | 122.330th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.6 | Margin | −13.830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 103.530th of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.5 | Pace | 104.34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 4–1128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–16 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–0 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.