Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints24
- D'Angelo RussellAssists8
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds10
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints33
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists15
- Scottie BarnesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–130
- Q410.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 1113–130
- Q410.0Ulrich Chomche shooting foul112–130
- Q410.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes 4-foot layup (Reece Beekman assists)112–130
- Q417.1Ja'Kobe Walter makes 5-foot pullup jump shot (Jamal Shead assists)110–130
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2110–128
- Q441.1Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2109–128
- Q441.1Ja'Kobe Walter enters the game for Ochai Agbaji108–128
- Q441.1Jamison Battle enters the game for Jakob Poeltl108–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q239.0Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ochai Agbaji assists)BKN 62 – 63 TOR · TOR 46% → 54% +9TOR 46% → 54%+9 pts
- Q311:04Noah Clowney makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 67 – 67 TOR · BKN 40% → 48% +9BKN 40% → 48%+9 pts
- Q39:31Scottie Barnes makes 24-foot three pointerBKN 67 – 74 TOR · TOR 64% → 72% +8TOR 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:11Cameron Johnson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 70 – 74 TOR · BKN 28% → 36% +8BKN 28% → 36%+8 pts
- Q38:00Scottie Barnes makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotBKN 74 – 79 TOR · TOR 58% → 67% +9TOR 58% → 67%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -1.5
- ML BKN +100 / TOR -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -3.5
- TOR 37%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 36.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -109
- BKN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 108.5 – 110.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1431 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | −20 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −13 · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +94 Elo | BKN 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30107.8 | Points scored | 111.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 119.327th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | −8.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.4 | Offense rating | 107.325th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 115.226th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 102.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1029th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–11 | Road vs home | 6–1125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−15 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring−13 Elo
Raptors
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–13 | 20–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 17–10 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–1 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.