Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints25
- Ben SimmonsAssists7
- Ben SimmonsRebounds7
Magic- Tristan da SilvaPoints21
- Tristan da SilvaAssists7
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–102
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound101–102
- Q40.0Cam Thomas misses 20-foot two point shot101–102
- Q41.1Cam Thomas enters the game for Noah Clowney101–102
- Q41.1Gary Harris enters the game for Cole Anthony101–102
- Q41.1Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Caleb Houstan101–102
- Q41.1Nets Full timeout101–102
- Q41.1Cole Anthony makes 3-foot two point shot101–102
- Q46.0Noah Clowney enters the game for Jalen Wilson101–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q449.1Caleb Houstan makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tristan da Silva assists)BKN 99 – 99 ORL · ORL 13% → 53% +40ORL 13% → 53%+40 pts
- Q417.1Goga Bitadze makes free throw 1 of 2BKN 99 – 100 ORL · ORL 52% → 77% +25ORL 52% → 77%+25 pts
- Q46.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 1 of 2BKN 100 – 100 ORL · BKN 12% → 49% +37BKN 12% → 49%+37 pts
- Q46.0Jalen Wilson makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 101 – 100 ORL · BKN 49% → 87% +38BKN 49% → 87%+38 pts
- Q41.1Cole Anthony makes 3-foot two point shotBKN 101 – 102 ORL · ORL <1% → >99% +99ORL <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML BKN +275 / ORL -350
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 64.8%, market 74.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -292
- BKN +292 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 97.5 – 105.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 202.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −53 | BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +106 Elo | ORL 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 74.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 106.030th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 103.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.1 | Margin | +2.49th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 107.126th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 104.73rd of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.2 | Pace | 99.024th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 12–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–13 | 20–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 14–5 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 6–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–16 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–5 ORL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.