Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints23
- Malik BeasleyAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds9
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints29
- Reece BeekmanAssists5
- Tyrese MartinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–98
- Q40.0Bobi Klintman defensive rebound113–98
- Q40.0Noah Clowney misses driving layup113–98
- Q43.1shot clock turnover113–98
- Q427.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes 1-foot dunk (Reece Beekman assists)113–98
- Q431.1Daniss Jenkins bad pass (Tosan Evbuomwan steals)113–96
- Q439.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 2 of 2113–96
- Q439.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 1 of 2113–95
- Q439.1Bobi Klintman shooting foul113–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:58Noah Clowney makes 22-foot three point jumper (Reece Beekman assists)DET 23 – 23 BKN · BKN 19% → 24% +5BKN 19% → 24%+5 pts
- Q29:45Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Stewart assists)DET 34 – 32 BKN · DET 72% → 78% +6DET 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q27:52Noah Clowney makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)DET 40 – 37 BKN · BKN 15% → 20% +5BKN 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q27:28Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 43 – 37 BKN · DET 80% → 85% +5DET 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q24:54Malik Beasley makes 22-foot three point shot (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DET 46 – 41 BKN · DET 77% → 83% +6DET 77% → 83%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML DET -450 / BKN +340
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -5.5
- DET 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- DET: Elo 71.1%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -360
- BKN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 110.5 – 101.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1450 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +27 | −117 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −28, Cameron Johnson −28, Day'Ron Sharpe −28 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +157 Elo | DET 71.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 74.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 107.526th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 113.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −6.024th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 108.823rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.4 | Pace | 98.229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 5–1127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−117 Elo- D'Angelo Russell right shin contusion−28 Elo
- Cameron Johnson sprained right ankle−28 Elo
- Day'Ron Sharpe illness−28 Elo
- Trendon Watford strained left hamstring−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–17 | 20–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–3 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.