Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints20
- Miles BridgesAssists5
- Miles BridgesRebounds9
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–98
- Q40.2Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 294–98
- Q40.2Pistons offensive team rebound94–97
- Q40.2Tim Hardaway Jr. misses free throw 1 of 294–97
- Q40.2Mark Williams personal foul94–97
- Q40.2Tim Hardaway Jr. defensive rebound94–97
- Q42.1Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point shot94–97
- Q412.1Josh Green enters the game for Nick Richards94–97
- Q412.1Malik Beasley enters the game for Isaiah Stewart94–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:29Seth Curry makes 28-foot three pointerCHA 78 – 73 DET · CHA 44% → 54% +11CHA 44% → 54%+11 pts
- Q34:06Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 78 – 76 DET · DET 45% → 56% +11DET 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q33:25Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Tobias Harris assists)CHA 78 – 79 DET · DET 56% → 66% +11DET 56% → 66%+11 pts
- Q33:00KJ Simpson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Seth Curry assists)CHA 81 – 79 DET · CHA 34% → 45% +11CHA 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q43:10Cade Cunningham makes 16-foot step back jumpshotCHA 90 – 94 DET · DET 71% → 83% +12DET 71% → 83%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML CHA +240 / DET -300
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- DET: Elo 77.2%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -255
- CHA +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 103.0 – 110.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1317 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −42 | +22 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +212 Elo | DET 77.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 77.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 77.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30106.2 | Points scored | 112.016th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 114.621st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.7 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 28th of 30105.6 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 112.719th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–16 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 16–13 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 12–20 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.