Chicago Bulls at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints23
- Coby WhiteAssists9
- Nikola VucevicRebounds13
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints31
- Miles BridgesAssists8
- Miles BridgesRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game115–108
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime115–108
- OT5.1Josh Giddey defensive rebound115–108
- OT7.1Miles Bridges misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot115–108
- OT14.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2115–108
- OT14.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 1 of 2114–108
- OT14.0Moussa Diabate personal foul113–108
- OT14.0Josh Giddey offensive rebound113–108
- OT14.0Josh Giddey misses tip shot113–108
- OT14.0Josh Giddey offensive rebound113–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:15Torrey Craig makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalen Terry assists)CHI 96 – 90 CHA · CHI 78% → 93% +15CHI 78% → 93%+15 pts
- Q41:32Mark Williams makes 4-foot layup (Miles Bridges assists)CHI 96 – 94 CHA · CHA 11% → 26% +15CHA 11% → 26%+15 pts
- Q41:09Coby White makes 9-foot two point shot (Lonzo Ball assists)CHI 98 – 95 CHA · CHI 65% → 85% +21CHI 65% → 85%+21 pts
- Q41.1Miles Bridges makes 25-foot three point shotCHI 98 – 98 CHA · CHA <1% → 50% +50CHA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:34Nikola Vucevic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)CHI 103 – 98 CHA · CHI 68% → 85% +17CHI 68% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML CHI -175 / CHA +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3.5
- CHI 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 63.3%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -159
- CHA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.5 – 110.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1323 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −9 | CHI: Usual rotation · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +95 Elo | CHI 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 59.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 106.129th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.4 | Points allowed | 112.815th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | −6.625th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 106.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 112.618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.6 | Pace | 99.423rd of 30 |
| 16th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 7th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 5–1227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–16 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 12–14 | 16–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 12–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 5–0 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.