Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints29
- Damian LillardAssists12
- Bobby PortisRebounds9
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists10
- Josh GiddeyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–116
- Q41.1Bobby Portis defensive rebound111–116
- Q43.1Zach LaVine misses free throw 2 of 2111–116
- Q43.1Zach LaVine makes free throw 1 of 2111–116
- Q43.1AJ Green personal take foul111–115
- Q44.2Josh Giddey defensive rebound111–115
- Q47.2Brook Lopez misses 22-foot three point jumper111–115
- Q410.1Bucks Full timeout111–115
- Q410.1Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2111–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:30Khris Middleton makes two point shot (Damian Lillard assists)MIL 108 – 106 CHI · MIL 51% → 73% +22MIL 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q41:11Josh Giddey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)MIL 108 – 109 CHI · CHI 25% → 63% +38CHI 25% → 63%+38 pts
- Q450.1Patrick Williams makes two point shotMIL 108 – 111 CHI · CHI 65% → 88% +23CHI 65% → 88%+23 pts
- Q443.2Brook Lopez makes 29-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 111 – 111 CHI · MIL 10% → 50% +40MIL 10% → 50%+40 pts
- Q431.1Coby White makes 17-foot pullup jump shotMIL 111 – 113 CHI · CHI 50% → 84% +34CHI 50% → 84%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -1.5
- ML MIL -125 / CHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- CHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 116.5 – 115.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −49 | +1 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +23 Elo | MIL 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 117.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.2 | Points allowed | 121.829th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −4.122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 111.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 115.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 30100.1 | Pace | 105.62nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 20th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 4–1127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–17 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 11–14 |
| Overs–unders | 13–17 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–2 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.