Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jalen SuggsPoints24
- Goga BitadzeAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds8
Pistons- Jaden IveyPoints22
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–105
- Q410.0Ausar Thompson defensive rebound96–105
- Q413.2Wendell Carter Jr. misses 28-foot three point jumper96–105
- Q419.0Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 296–105
- Q419.0Pistons offensive team rebound96–104
- Q419.0Tim Hardaway Jr. misses free throw 1 of 296–104
- Q419.0Caleb Houstan personal foul96–104
- Q429.1Cade Cunningham defensive rebound96–104
- Q433.0Jalen Suggs misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot96–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:49Jalen Suggs makes 25-foot three pointerORL 82 – 86 DET · ORL 18% → 29% +11ORL 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q47:11Jett Howard makes 6-foot two point shotORL 88 – 91 DET · ORL 23% → 32% +9ORL 23% → 32%+9 pts
- Q46:48Cade Cunningham makes 18-foot pullup jump shot (Isaiah Stewart assists)ORL 88 – 93 DET · DET 68% → 77% +9DET 68% → 77%+9 pts
- Q46:26Wendell Carter Jr. makes 17-foot jumperORL 90 – 93 DET · ORL 22% → 32% +9ORL 22% → 32%+9 pts
- Q45:38Jalen Duren makes tip shotORL 90 – 95 DET · DET 69% → 79% +10DET 69% → 79%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML ORL +115 / DET -135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.4 pts
- DET: Elo 45.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- ORL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 104.5 – 107.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1418 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −52 | +16 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +29 Elo | ORL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.9 | Points scored | 112.213th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.5 | Points allowed | 115.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.4 | Margin | −2.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 110.318th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.9 | Defense rating | 113.220th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 18th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 5–821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–14 | 17–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–6 | 2–7 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–0 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.