Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds12
Nets- Ziaire WilliamsPoints19
- Keon JohnsonAssists8
- Keon JohnsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–94
- Q42.1Ricky Council IV defensive rebound123–94
- Q42.1Day'Ron Sharpe misses 25-foot three point jumper123–94
- Q48.1Keon Johnson defensive rebound123–94
- Q412.1Reggie Jackson misses 27-foot three point jumper123–94
- Q432.1Tyrese Martin makes free throw 2 of 2123–94
- Q432.1Tyrese Martin makes free throw 1 of 2123–93
- Q432.1Kyle Lowry shooting foul123–92
- Q432.2Tyrese Martin offensive rebound123–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:53D'Angelo Russell makes 27-foot three pointerPHI 0 – 3 BKN · BKN 23% → 28% +5BKN 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q111:18Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)PHI 0 – 6 BKN · BKN 28% → 34% +6BKN 28% → 34%+6 pts
- Q110:20Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)PHI 0 – 11 BKN · BKN 38% → 45% +6BKN 38% → 45%+6 pts
- Q110:03Paul George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 3 – 11 BKN · PHI 55% → 62% +6PHI 55% → 62%+6 pts
- Q19:33Caleb Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 6 – 11 BKN · PHI 61% → 67% +6PHI 61% → 67%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -9.5
- ML PHI -400 / BKN +315
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.4%, market 76.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -332
- BKN +332 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.5 – 101.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 211.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +48 | −53 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Trendon Watford −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | −12 | PHI crossed 3 time zones and BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHI +73 Elo | PHI 60.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 71.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 70.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 76.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 108.125th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 113.216th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.1 | Margin | −5.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 109.521st of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 114.725th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 98.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 17th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 5–924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−53 Elo- Trendon Watford strained left hamstring−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–19 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 8–11 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–2 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.