Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Paul GeorgePoints30
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds9
Kings- De'Aaron FoxPoints35
- Domantas SabonisAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds21
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–113
- Q40.076ers offensive team rebound107–113
- Q40.1Tyrese Maxey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–113
- Q45.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2107–113
- Q45.0DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2107–112
- Q45.0Tyrese Maxey personal foul107–111
- Q46.0Kyle Lowry bad pass (DeMar DeRozan steals)107–111
- Q47.1Kyle Lowry enters the game for Andre Drummond107–111
- Q47.176ers Full timeout107–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:59Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caleb Martin assists)PHI 82 – 76 SAC · PHI 50% → 61% +11PHI 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q46:52Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three pointerPHI 99 – 92 SAC · PHI 65% → 78% +14PHI 65% → 78%+14 pts
- Q41:48Keon Ellis makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)PHI 107 – 105 SAC · SAC 10% → 33% +22SAC 10% → 33%+22 pts
- Q41:00DeMar DeRozan makes two point shotPHI 107 – 107 SAC · SAC 26% → 53% +27SAC 26% → 53%+27 pts
- Q433.1Malik Monk makes driving layupPHI 107 – 109 SAC · SAC 52% → 85% +33SAC 52% → 85%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML PHI +200 / SAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -2.5
- SAC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 59.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -212
- PHI +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 107.0 – 113.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −31 | +19 | PHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +64 Elo | SAC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 67.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 66.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 114.89th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.3 | Points allowed | 113.717th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.1 | Margin | +1.114th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 112.77th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 111.716th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 100.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 7–1223rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–18 | 12–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 10–17 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 SAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.