Philadelphia 76ers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints37
- Paul GeorgeAssists4
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints25
- Scoot HendersonAssists7
- Toumani CamaraRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–103
- Q411.0Duop Reath makes 3-foot two point shot125–103
- Q426.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer125–101
- Q435.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. defensive rebound122–101
- Q438.1Jabari Walker misses 25-foot three point jumper122–101
- Q444.1Pete Nance makes 22-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)122–101
- Q41:03Pete Nance defensive rebound119–101
- Q41:06Duop Reath misses free throw 2 of 2119–101
- Q41:06Duop Reath makes free throw 1 of 2119–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:44Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)PHI 0 – 3 POR · POR 29% → 34% +6POR 29% → 34%+6 pts
- Q110:01Caleb Martin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 3 – 3 POR · PHI 65% → 71% +6PHI 65% → 71%+6 pts
- Q15:34Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paul George assists)PHI 20 – 13 POR · PHI 77% → 82% +5PHI 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q210:33Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donovan Clingan assists)PHI 35 – 36 POR · POR 27% → 34% +6POR 27% → 34%+6 pts
- Q210:16Guerschon Yabusele makes 23-foot three point jumper (Reggie Jackson assists)PHI 38 – 36 POR · PHI 66% → 73% +6PHI 66% → 73%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML PHI -290 / POR +235
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4.5
- PHI 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 68.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -249
- POR +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 114.5 – 108.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | −3 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Dalano Banton −6 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +132 Elo | PHI 68.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.6 | Points scored | 108.225th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.6 | Points allowed | 117.123rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−3.9 | Margin | −8.928th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.3 | Offense rating | 106.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 115.527th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.2 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 17th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 8–719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
−3 Elo- Dalano Banton left hip injury−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–18 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–8 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 7–10 | 16–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–14 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–1 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.