Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists6
- Joel EmbiidRebounds14
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints30
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Andrew WigginsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–139
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–139
- Q40.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2105–139
- Q40.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2104–139
- Q40.1Lindy Waters III shooting foul103–139
- Q412.176ers offensive team rebound103–139
- Q412.1Kevon Looney blocks Ricky Council IV 's 5-foot driving layup103–139
- Q420.1Kyle Anderson makes free throw 2 of 2103–139
- Q420.1Warriors offensive team rebound103–138
- Q420.1Kyle Anderson misses free throw 1 of 2103–138
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)PHI 0 – 3 GS · GS 59% → 65% +6GS 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q19:59Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)PHI 2 – 8 GS · GS 65% → 70% +6GS 65% → 70%+6 pts
- Q19:01Dennis Schroder makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)PHI 4 – 11 GS · GS 67% → 72% +6GS 67% → 72%+6 pts
- Q13:14Jonathan Kuminga makes 26-foot three pointerPHI 12 – 24 GS · GS 76% → 81% +5GS 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q22:35Stephen Curry makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)PHI 50 – 63 GS · GS 81% → 86% +5GS 81% → 86%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML PHI +135 / GS -155
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- GS: Elo 57.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- GS -143
- PHI +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 108.0 – 111.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +53 | −8 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +55 Elo | GS 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 111.518th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.4 | Points allowed | 110.612th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.2 | Margin | +0.914th of 30 |
| 25th of 30107.9 | Offense rating | 109.421st of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 108.58th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.3 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 8–819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–18 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 8–10 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–15 | 13–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 0–2 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.