Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Tyus JonesAssists6
- Josh OkogieRebounds9
Warriors- Jonathan KumingaPoints34
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–109
- Q40.1Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound105–109
- Q43.1Bradley Beal misses 24-foot three point jumper105–109
- Q43.2Suns Full timeout105–109
- Q43.2Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 2 of 2105–109
- Q43.2Warriors offensive team rebound105–108
- Q43.2Jonathan Kuminga misses free throw 1 of 2105–108
- Q43.2Josh Okogie personal take foul105–108
- Q45.0Jonathan Kuminga defensive rebound105–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:23Dennis Schroder makes 30-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)PHX 103 – 104 GS · GS 30% → 65% +35GS 30% → 65%+35 pts
- Q429.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 1 of 2PHX 104 – 104 GS · PHX 29% → 48% +19PHX 29% → 48%+19 pts
- Q429.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 105 – 104 GS · PHX 48% → 68% +20PHX 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q429.0Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 1 of 2PHX 105 – 105 GS · GS 32% → 52% +20GS 32% → 52%+20 pts
- Q429.0Jonathan Kuminga makes free throw 2 of 2PHX 105 – 106 GS · GS 52% → 71% +20GS 52% → 71%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- GS -6.5
- ML PHX +200 / GS -240
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4
- GS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- GS: Elo 65.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- GS -212
- PHX +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 107.0 – 113.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | GS and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −65 | −4 | PHX: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −10 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +112 Elo | GS 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 63.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 112.115th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 110.711th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 7th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 110.118th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 108.78th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 20th of 305–8 | Road vs home | 7–719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−65 Elo- Jusuf Nurkic suspended by league−10 Elo
Warriors
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–20 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–11 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 4–9 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 16–14 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–1 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.