Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints25
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Dean WadeRebounds13
Warriors- Moses MoodyPoints19
- Draymond GreenAssists5
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–95
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–95
- Q422.1Moses Moody makes two point shot (Pat Spencer assists)113–95
- Q428.1Pat Spencer defensive rebound113–93
- Q433.0JT Thor misses 26-foot three point jumper113–93
- Q447.0Lindy Waters III makes free throw 2 of 2113–93
- Q447.0Lindy Waters III makes free throw 1 of 2113–92
- Q447.0Moses Moody makes technical free throw113–91
- Q447.0Ty Jerome technical foul113–90
- Q447.0Ty Jerome personal foul113–90
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:21Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point shot (Georges Niang assists)CLE 24 – 24 GS · CLE 51% → 58% +7CLE 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q11:07Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point jumperCLE 24 – 27 GS · GS 42% → 49% +7GS 42% → 49%+7 pts
- Q27:13Ty Jerome makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 29 – 30 GS · CLE 47% → 55% +8CLE 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q25:18Ty Jerome makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 34 – 30 GS · CLE 60% → 67% +8CLE 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q311:23Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CLE 49 – 41 GS · CLE 70% → 77% +7CLE 70% → 77%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -3.5
- ML CLE -155 / GS +135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -3.5
- CLE 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 64.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -143
- GS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 118.5 – 115.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +1 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +100 Elo | CLE 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.7 | Points scored | 112.016th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 110.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.7 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.7 | Offense rating | 110.119th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.3 | Defense rating | 108.67th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.312th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–3 | Road vs home | 8–719th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–9 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–9 | 7–10 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders | 21–10 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–0 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.