Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints26
- D'Angelo RussellAssists12
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints27
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–110
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound113–110
- Q40.0Damian Lillard misses 35-foot three point jumper113–110
- Q40.1Tyrese Martin enters the game for Cameron Johnson113–110
- Q40.1(00:00.6) [Nets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)113–110
- Q40.1Cameron Johnson out of bounds bad pass turnover113–110
- Q41.1Cameron Johnson defensive rebound113–110
- Q44.0Damian Lillard misses 27-foot three point jumper113–110
- Q46.0Khris Middleton enters the game for Pat Connaughton113–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:11Gary Trent Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)BKN 93 – 83 MIL · MIL 22% → 32% +10MIL 22% → 32%+10 pts
- Q411:38Cameron Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (D'Angelo Russell assists)BKN 97 – 85 MIL · BKN 68% → 78% +10BKN 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q41:06Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pat Connaughton assists)BKN 111 – 108 MIL · MIL 3% → 19% +16MIL 3% → 19%+16 pts
- Q437.1Damian Lillard makes two point shotBKN 111 – 110 MIL · MIL 10% → 37% +26MIL 10% → 37%+26 pts
- Q46.0Ziaire Williams makes free throw 1 of 2BKN 112 – 110 MIL · BKN 86% → 99% +12BKN 86% → 99%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -12.5
- ML BKN +500 / MIL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 87%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -10.5
- MIL 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 84.0%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -533
- BKN +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.5 – 118.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +3 | +65 | BKN: Usual rotation · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +287 Elo | MIL 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 86.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 112.214th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 110.410th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−5.3 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 111.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 109.510th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.0 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–14 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 17–11 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–4 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.