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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-1

Away

Bucks

17-14

120–112

at

Home

Pacers

16-18

MIL 54%IND 46%

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Gainbridge Fieldhouse · NBA League Pass, FanDuel SN IN, FanDuel SN WI

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored MIL favored122 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%MIL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game120–112
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–112
  • Q48.1Bobby Portis defensive rebound120–112
  • Q411.1Pascal Siakam misses 25-foot three point jumper120–112
  • Q414.1Bennedict Mathurin offensive rebound120–112
  • Q417.1Bennedict Mathurin misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–112
  • Q421.0Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2120–112
  • Q421.0Khris Middleton makes free throw 1 of 2119–112
  • Q421.0(00:21.2) [Pacers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Pacers] retain their timeout118–112
  • Q421.0Pacers Coach's Challenge118–112

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q46:47Andrew Nembhard makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 101 – 104 IND · IND 48% → 65% +16
  2. Q46:27Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 104 – 104 IND · MIL 35% → 52% +17
  3. Q45:17Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three pointer (Gary Trent Jr. assists)MIL 107 – 104 IND · MIL 51% → 69% +18
  4. Q42:15Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 112 – 108 IND · MIL 60% → 84% +23
  5. Q41:39Gary Trent Jr. makes 24-foot three pointer (Khris Middleton assists)MIL 115 – 110 IND · MIL 72% → 92% +20

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Bucks 54%

Toss-upHit
MIL 54%IND 46%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
MIL -1.5
ML MIL -130 / IND +110
Pre-line forecast
MIL 56%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL -2
MIL 58%
Ratings vs. market
+3.8 pts
MIL: Elo 58.1%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
MIL -119
IND +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 115.5 – 114.0 IND
Posted spread, posted total 229.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILINDWhy
Team rating15531520Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Lineups+45−26MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12—MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsMIL +57 EloMIL 58.1%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 55.4%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 55.6%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatIND
17th of 30111.9Points scored114.710th of 30
10th of 30110.4Points allowed116.822nd of 30
13th of 30+1.6Margin−2.119th of 30
13th of 30111.2Offense rating112.59th of 30
11th of 30109.7Defense rating114.524th of 30
20th of 30100.2Pace101.214th of 30
8th of 306–4Last 107–35th of 30
22nd of 305–9Road vs home8–514th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Bucks

+45 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

−26 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILIND
Against the spread13–1814–19
Last 105–57–3
Favorite8–145–12
Underdog5–49–7
Overs–unders13–1820–13
Overs–unders, last 104–65–5

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 4–8 IND in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.