Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints23
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Nets- Day'Ron SharpePoints16
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–99
- Q413.1Day'Ron Sharpe makes two point shot113–99
- Q413.1Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound113–97
- Q416.1Dariq Whitehead misses 27-foot three point jumper113–97
- Q427.1shot clock turnover113–97
- Q452.1Day'Ron Sharpe makes tip shot113–97
- Q452.1Day'Ron Sharpe offensive rebound113–95
- Q453.1Dariq Whitehead misses 25-foot three point jumper113–95
- Q41:02Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)113–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:11Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)IND 13 – 12 BKN · BKN 15% → 19% +4BKN 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q12:54Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 18 – 18 BKN · IND 73% → 78% +5IND 73% → 78%+5 pts
- Q210:44Reece Beekman makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Johnson assists)IND 26 – 25 BKN · BKN 16% → 21% +5BKN 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q22:59Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 46 – 37 BKN · IND 86% → 90% +4IND 86% → 90%+4 pts
- Q411:51Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 81 – 70 BKN · IND 90% → 94% +5IND 90% → 94%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -11.5
- ML IND -550 / BKN +400
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6
- IND 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- IND: Elo 72.8%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -423
- BKN +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 116.0 – 104.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1408 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | −85 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −21, Trendon Watford −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +171 Elo | IND 72.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 77.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30115.3 | Points scored | 107.726th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.6 | Points allowed | 113.516th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −5.724th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 108.923rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 114.725th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 98.329th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 18th of 309–12 | Road vs home | 5–1025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−85 Elo- D'Angelo Russell right shin contusion−21 Elo
- Trendon Watford left hamstring strain−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–20 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 18–12 |
| Overs–unders | 22–14 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–2 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.