Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Devin BookerRebounds8
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists8
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–126
- Q42.2Damion Lee makes free throw 2 of 2108–126
- Q42.2Damion Lee makes free throw 1 of 2107–126
- Q42.2Thomas Bryant personal foul106–126
- Q45.1shot clock turnover106–126
- Q428.1Thomas Bryant defensive rebound106–126
- Q431.1Bol Bol misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot106–126
- Q437.0Damion Lee offensive rebound106–126
- Q440.1Monte Morris misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot106–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:36Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)PHX 56 – 61 IND · IND 61% → 69% +8IND 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q310:06Myles Turner makes 28-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)PHX 58 – 64 IND · IND 64% → 72% +8IND 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:35Tyrese Haliburton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)PHX 60 – 67 IND · IND 67% → 75% +8IND 67% → 75%+8 pts
- Q48:48Devin Booker makes 29-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)PHX 96 – 102 IND · PHX 12% → 21% +9PHX 12% → 21%+9 pts
- Q47:36Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Thomas Bryant assists)PHX 98 – 107 IND · IND 81% → 89% +9IND 81% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML PHX +125 / IND -150
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- IND: Elo 59.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -135
- PHX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 116.0 – 118.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −17 | PHX: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | PHX crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +68 Elo | IND 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 115.010th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 116.822nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −1.819th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 112.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.0 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 305–9 | Road vs home | 8–616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+9 Elo- Jusuf Nurkic suspended by league−5 Elo
Pacers
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–21 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 5–12 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 22–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.