Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists15
- Pascal SiakamRebounds11
Heat- Kel'el WarePoints25
- Terry RozierAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–115
- Q40.1shot clock turnover128–115
- Q424.1Kel'el Ware makes free throw 2 of 2128–115
- Q424.1Kel'el Ware makes free throw 1 of 2128–114
- Q424.1Johnny Furphy shooting foul128–113
- Q431.1Johnny Furphy enters the game for Bennedict Mathurin128–113
- Q432.1Josh Christopher defensive rebound128–113
- Q434.1Keshad Johnson blocks Bennedict Mathurin 's 9-foot pullup jump shot128–113
- Q441.1Pacers offensive team rebound128–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:33Tyrese Haliburton makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 7 – 2 MIA · IND 48% → 55% +6IND 48% → 55%+6 pts
- Q19:05Tyrese Haliburton makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 10 – 2 MIA · IND 55% → 61% +6IND 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q17:49Tyrese Haliburton makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 15 – 5 MIA · IND 59% → 65% +6IND 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q14:56Thomas Bryant makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 21 – 13 MIA · IND 55% → 62% +7IND 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q14:24Obi Toppin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 24 – 15 MIA · IND 58% → 64% +7IND 58% → 64%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -2.5
- ML IND +120 / MIA -140
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2.5
- MIA 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- MIA: Elo 60.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -128
- IND +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.5 – 114.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −26 | +16 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +72 Elo | MIA 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 57.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 111.320th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 108.76th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +2.69th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 112.410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30114.4 | Defense rating | 109.711th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.030th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–20 | 14–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–13 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–2 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.