New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints34
- Dejounte MurrayAssists7
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds4
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints32
- Bam AdebayoAssists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–119
- Q42.1shot clock turnover108–119
- Q425.1CJ McCollum bad pass (Bam Adebayo steals)108–119
- Q431.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 2 of 2108–119
- Q431.1Bam Adebayo makes free throw 1 of 2108–118
- Q431.1Trey Murphy III personal foul108–117
- Q435.2Yves Missi makes 1-foot dunk (CJ McCollum assists)108–117
- Q440.0Pelicans Full timeout106–117
- Q440.0Bam Adebayo makes 14-foot pullup jump shot106–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q250.1Jimmy Butler makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jovic assists)NO 49 – 53 MIA · MIA 72% → 79% +7MIA 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q228.0Tyler Herro makes 29-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)NO 51 – 56 MIA · MIA 74% → 81% +7MIA 74% → 81%+7 pts
- Q37:38Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)NO 64 – 70 MIA · MIA 76% → 83% +7MIA 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q36:47Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)NO 66 – 73 MIA · MIA 78% → 85% +7MIA 78% → 85%+7 pts
- Q34:47Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three pointer (Bam Adebayo assists)NO 70 – 78 MIA · MIA 80% → 87% +6MIA 80% → 87%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML NO +300 / MIA -380
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -10
- MIA 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 82.8%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -317
- NO +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 106.0 – 114.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1383 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −56 | +20 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | NO crossed 1 time zone and MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +273 Elo | MIA 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 76.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 77.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30106.7 | Points scored | 111.020th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 108.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−11.3 | Margin | +2.39th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.3 | Offense rating | 112.011th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 109.711th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.8 | Pace | 98.029th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–14 | Road vs home | 9–512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–21 | 13–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 11–16 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–15 | 16–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.