Memphis Grizzlies at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points38
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds12
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints29
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Kevin DurantRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–112
- Q41.1Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2117–112
- Q41.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound116–112
- Q41.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2116–112
- Q41.1Ryan Dunn personal foul116–112
- Q42.0Josh Okogie enters the game for Mason Plumlee116–112
- Q42.0Grizzlies Full timeout116–112
- Q42.0Mason Plumlee makes 7-foot two point shot116–112
- Q47.0Jaren Jackson Jr. steps out of bounds turnover116–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:22Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 99 – 95 PHX · MEM 50% → 66% +17MEM 50% → 66%+17 pts
- Q45:55Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMEM 102 – 97 PHX · MEM 56% → 73% +16MEM 56% → 73%+16 pts
- Q42:08Luke Kennard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 108 – 103 PHX · MEM 66% → 87% +22MEM 66% → 87%+22 pts
- Q41:51Devin Booker makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)MEM 108 – 106 PHX · PHX 11% → 33% +22PHX 11% → 33%+22 pts
- Q41:27Desmond Bane makes driving layupMEM 110 – 106 PHX · MEM 70% → 87% +17MEM 70% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML MEM +180 / PHX -220
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -1
- PHX 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 45.4%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -192
- MEM +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 117.0 – 122.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −2 | MEM: Missing Brandon Clarke −12, Santi Aldama −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · PHX: Missing Jusuf Nurkic −5 (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +32 Elo | MEM 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 57.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.4 | Points scored | 112.213th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 113.918th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.2 | Margin | −1.718th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 113.07th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.0 | Defense rating | 114.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.8 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 10–716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+29 Elo- Brandon Clarke right soleus strain−12 Elo
- Santi Aldama left ankle sprain−2 Elo
Suns
−2 Elo- Jusuf Nurkic suspended by league−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–11 | 11–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–8 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–12 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–2 PHX in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.