Minnesota Timberwolves at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints53
- Julius RandleAssists6
- Julius RandleRebounds7
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints40
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Tobias HarrisRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–119
- Q422.1Anthony Edwards makes two point shot (Donte DiVincenzo assists)105–119
- Q428.0Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound103–119
- Q431.0Cade Cunningham misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot103–119
- Q448.0Cade Cunningham defensive rebound103–119
- Q449.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot103–119
- Q41:02Cade Cunningham makes 6-foot two point shot103–119
- Q41:23Rudy Gobert makes driving layup103–117
- Q41:36Malik Beasley lost ball turnover (Mike Conley steals)101–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:45Malik Beasley makes 29-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIN 28 – 38 DET · DET 50% → 57% +7DET 50% → 57%+7 pts
- Q235.1Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three pointerMIN 43 – 55 DET · MIN 23% → 31% +7MIN 23% → 31%+7 pts
- Q311:04Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)MIN 46 – 58 DET · DET 63% → 71% +8DET 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:56Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIN 48 – 63 DET · DET 72% → 79% +7DET 72% → 79%+7 pts
- Q410:37Cade Cunningham makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)MIN 85 – 99 DET · DET 84% → 91% +7DET 84% → 91%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML MIN -260 / DET +215
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -2.5
- MIN 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 59.8%, market 69.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -227
- DET +227 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 111.0 – 104.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +20 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +69 Elo | MIN 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 69.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.4 | Points scored | 111.617th of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.7 | Points allowed | 114.018th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 109.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 112.118th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.7 | Pace | 100.319th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 7–821st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–20 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | 15–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–0 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.