Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints36
- Anfernee SimonsAssists9
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints32
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–118
- Q40.0(00:00) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–118
- Q42.1Anfernee Simons lost ball turnover (Malik Beasley steals)115–118
- Q411.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound115–118
- Q411.0Malik Beasley misses free throw 2 of 2115–118
- Q411.0Malik Beasley makes free throw 1 of 2115–118
- Q411.0Anfernee Simons personal take foul115–117
- Q412.0Anfernee Simons makes 27-foot three pointer115–117
- Q418.0Deandre Ayton defensive rebound112–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:04Anfernee Simons makes 29-foot three pointer (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 103 – 101 DET · POR 38% → 57% +19POR 38% → 57%+19 pts
- Q44:47Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 29-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)POR 103 – 104 DET · DET 42% → 62% +20DET 42% → 62%+20 pts
- Q44:27Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three pointerPOR 106 – 104 DET · POR 38% → 58% +20POR 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q42:57Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three pointer (Cade Cunningham assists)POR 106 – 109 DET · DET 54% → 77% +23DET 54% → 77%+23 pts
- Q453.2Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)POR 110 – 114 DET · DET 67% → 94% +27DET 67% → 94%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML POR +190 / DET -230
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6
- DET 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DET: Elo 71.9%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -202
- POR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.0 – 115.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −7 | +26 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | POR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +163 Elo | DET 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30107.9 | Points scored | 111.817th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 113.718th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.9 | Margin | −1.919th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 110.019th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 111.918th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.419th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–14 | Road vs home | 8–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–17 | 19–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 3–8 |
| Underdog | 17–15 | 16–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.