Portland Trail Blazers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints23
- Scoot HendersonAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints38
- Austin ReavesAssists11
- Austin ReavesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q40.1Scoot Henderson offensive rebound106–114
- Q43.1Anfernee Simons misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot106–114
- Q46.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 2 of 2106–114
- Q46.1Dalton Knecht enters the game for LeBron James106–113
- Q46.1Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 2106–113
- Q46.1Scoot Henderson personal take foul106–112
- Q49.0Max Christie defensive rebound106–112
- Q411.1Anfernee Simons misses 33-foot three point pullup jump shot106–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:16Max Christie makes 24-foot three point shot (Cam Reddish assists)POR 43 – 39 LAL · LAL 49% → 57% +8LAL 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q26:29Max Christie makes 23-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)POR 43 – 42 LAL · LAL 56% → 64% +8LAL 56% → 64%+8 pts
- Q42:49Max Christie makes dunk (LeBron James assists)POR 97 – 103 LAL · LAL 84% → 92% +8LAL 84% → 92%+8 pts
- Q42:30Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Toumani Camara assists)POR 100 – 103 LAL · POR 7% → 21% +14POR 7% → 21%+14 pts
- Q42:09LeBron James makes driving layupPOR 100 – 105 LAL · LAL 80% → 91% +11LAL 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -6.5
- ML POR +220 / LAL -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAL 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 64.1%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- LAL -235
- POR +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 109.0 – 115.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1358 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −12 | −110 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +101 Elo | LAL 64.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30108.1 | Points scored | 111.917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 114.320th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.3 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 111.312th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 113.721st of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.3 | Pace | 100.220th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−110 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–16 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 16–14 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–4 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.