Cleveland Cavaliers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists14
- Jarrett AllenRebounds14
Lakers- Austin ReavesPoints35
- Austin ReavesAssists10
- Anthony DavisRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–110
- Q423.1Darius Garland makes driving layup122–110
- Q433.0Max Strus offensive rebound120–110
- Q437.1Darius Garland misses 27-foot three point jumper120–110
- Q454.1Jarrett Allen defensive rebound120–110
- Q456.1Austin Reaves misses 26-foot three point jumper120–110
- Q41:06Evan Mobley makes dunk (Darius Garland assists)120–110
- Q41:16Austin Reaves makes free throw 1 of 1118–110
- Q41:16Max Strus shooting foul118–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:36Max Strus makes 22-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 68 – 63 LAL · CLE 64% → 72% +9CLE 64% → 72%+9 pts
- Q33:44Anthony Davis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)CLE 77 – 75 LAL · LAL 27% → 36% +10LAL 27% → 36%+10 pts
- Q31:54Shake Milton makes three point step back jumpshot (LeBron James assists)CLE 79 – 78 LAL · LAL 29% → 40% +11LAL 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q31:32Donovan Mitchell makes 27-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)CLE 82 – 78 LAL · CLE 60% → 71% +11CLE 60% → 71%+11 pts
- Q42:50LeBron James makes 22-foot three point shot (Anthony Davis assists)CLE 112 – 107 LAL · LAL 4% → 13% +9LAL 4% → 13%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -4.5
- ML CLE -180 / LAL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -4
- CLE 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 65.4%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -161
- LAL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 116.0 – 111.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1632 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +39 | −43 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +110 Elo | CLE 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.4 | Points scored | 112.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 114.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.9 | Margin | −2.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 113.621st of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.8 | Pace | 100.121st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3011–3 | Road vs home | 10–45th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–9 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–9 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–11 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.