Portland Trail Blazers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints28
- Anfernee SimonsAssists8
- Deni AvdijaRebounds14
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Damian LillardAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–102
- Q40.2Toumani Camara defensive rebound105–102
- Q40.2Damian Lillard misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–102
- Q45.1Damian Lillard enters the game for Brook Lopez105–102
- Q45.1Khris Middleton enters the game for Taurean Prince105–102
- Q45.1Bucks Full timeout105–102
- Q45.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 2 of 2105–102
- Q45.1Brook Lopez enters the game for Andre Jackson Jr.104–102
- Q45.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 2104–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:54Shaedon Sharpe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Anfernee Simons assists)POR 98 – 94 MIL · POR 46% → 67% +21POR 46% → 67%+21 pts
- Q41:57Damian Lillard makes 16-foot step back jumpshotPOR 100 – 100 MIL · MIL 38% → 58% +20MIL 38% → 58%+20 pts
- Q432.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2POR 100 – 101 MIL · MIL 54% → 73% +18MIL 54% → 73%+18 pts
- Q423.1Anfernee Simons makes driving layupPOR 102 – 102 MIL · POR 11% → 46% +36POR 11% → 46%+36 pts
- Q423.1Anfernee Simons makes free throw 1 of 1POR 103 – 102 MIL · POR 46% → 69% +22POR 46% → 69%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -11.5
- ML POR +500 / MIL -800
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -11
- MIL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 85.6%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -533
- POR +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.5 – 120.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +46 | POR: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | POR crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +310 Elo | MIL 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 83.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 112.114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 110.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.2 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 111.113th of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.8 | Defense rating | 109.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.518th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 10–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
−8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–17 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 16–15 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.