LA Clippers at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints30
- James HardenAssists4
- Ivica ZubacRebounds8
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints21
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- DeAndre JordanRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–126
- Q40.0shot clock turnover103–126
- Q425.0Bones Hyland makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot103–126
- Q432.0Clippers offensive team rebound100–126
- Q434.1Bones Hyland misses 27-foot three point jumper100–126
- Q445.2Zeke Nnaji makes 1-foot dunk (Trey Alexander assists)100–126
- Q457.1Jordan Miller makes free throw 2 of 2100–124
- Q457.1Jordan Miller makes free throw 1 of 299–124
- Q457.1Zeke Nnaji personal foul98–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:35Christian Braun makes 24-foot three point shot (Michael Porter Jr. assists)LAC 3 – 6 DEN · DEN 40% → 46% +6DEN 40% → 46%+6 pts
- Q17:05Nicolas Batum makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 10 – 10 DEN · LAC 54% → 60% +6LAC 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q15:01Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Russell Westbrook assists)LAC 10 – 17 DEN · DEN 49% → 56% +7DEN 49% → 56%+7 pts
- Q14:42Norman Powell makes 23-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 13 – 17 DEN · LAC 44% → 51% +7LAC 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q14:01Michael Porter Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (Julian Strawther assists)LAC 13 – 24 DEN · DEN 58% → 65% +7DEN 58% → 65%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML LAC -170 / DEN +145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 61.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -154
- DEN +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.5 – 110.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1577 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | −117 | LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +84 Elo | LAC 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30109.1 | Points scored | 120.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 117.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +3.18th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 115.64th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 112.720th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 102.75th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 18th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 10–713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−117 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–14 | 15–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 13–23 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 4–3 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.