LA Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints25
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds16
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints37
- Anthony EdwardsAssists8
- Rudy GobertRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q40.0Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound106–108
- Q42.1Ivica Zubac misses 6-foot tip shot106–108
- Q42.1Ivica Zubac offensive rebound106–108
- Q43.0Kevin Porter Jr. misses free throw 1 of 1106–108
- Q43.0Ivica Zubac enters the game for Kris Dunn106–108
- Q43.0Julius Randle enters the game for Naz Reid106–108
- Q43.0Rudy Gobert enters the game for Mike Conley106–108
- Q43.0Naz Reid shooting foul106–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:05Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 96 – 97 MIN · MIN 35% → 59% +24MIN 35% → 59%+24 pts
- Q42:44James Harden makes 12-foot driving floating jump shotLAC 98 – 97 MIN · LAC 40% → 57% +17LAC 40% → 57%+17 pts
- Q41:49Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)LAC 98 – 100 MIN · MIN 40% → 71% +31MIN 40% → 71%+31 pts
- Q41:35Norman Powell makes 3-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)LAC 100 – 100 MIN · LAC 28% → 49% +22LAC 28% → 49%+22 pts
- Q41:12Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 101 – 103 MIN · MIN 38% → 75% +37MIN 38% → 75%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML LAC +115 / MIN -135
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -0.5
- MIN 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- MIN: Elo 47.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -124
- LAC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 106.0 – 108.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | −24 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +16 Elo | LAC 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30109.2 | Points scored | 109.222nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.9 | Points allowed | 108.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 109.920th of 30 |
| 5th of 30107.7 | Defense rating | 108.78th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.8 | Pace | 98.725th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 9–717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–14 | 13–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–3 | 9–18 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–22 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.