Atlanta Hawks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints20
- Trae YoungAssists14
- Garrison MathewsRebounds8
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints20
- James HardenAssists15
- Ivica ZubacRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–131
- Q419.1Garrison Mathews makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zaccharie Risacher assists)105–131
- Q427.1Kevin Porter Jr. makes dunk (Jordan Miller assists)102–131
- Q430.1Zaccharie Risacher lost ball turnover (Jordan Miller steals)102–129
- Q445.0Kai Jones makes 2-foot dunk (Kobe Brown assists)102–129
- Q446.2Kobe Brown defensive rebound102–127
- Q450.1Dominick Barlow misses 25-foot three point jumper102–127
- Q458.1Bones Hyland bad pass (David Roddy steals)102–127
- Q41:01Bones Hyland offensive rebound102–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:57Kawhi Leonard makes 27-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)ATL 5 – 5 LAC · LAC 64% → 70% +6LAC 64% → 70%+6 pts
- Q16:03Vit Krejci makes 28-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 14 – 13 LAC · ATL 27% → 33% +6ATL 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q211:33Amir Coffey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)ATL 28 – 32 LAC · LAC 70% → 76% +6LAC 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q29:44Garrison Mathews makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 35 – 36 LAC · ATL 24% → 31% +6ATL 24% → 31%+6 pts
- Q29:30Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)ATL 35 – 39 LAC · LAC 69% → 76% +6LAC 69% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML ATL +220 / LAC -275
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -6.5
- LAC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 74.1%, market 70.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -235
- ATL +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 111.0 – 118.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −19 | +19 | ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −27, Bogdan Bogdanovic −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +183 Elo | LAC 74.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 72.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 70.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.5 | Points scored | 108.524th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 108.04th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.515th of 30 |
| 15th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 108.723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 108.26th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.6 | Pace | 99.523rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 11–69th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−19 Elo- Jalen Johnson sore right shoulder−27 Elo
- Bogdan Bogdanovic lower leg−6 Elo
Clippers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–20 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 8–3 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–12 | 12–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.