Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints33
- Trae YoungAssists9
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- LeBron JamesAssists8
- Anthony DavisRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–119
- Q45.1shot clock turnover102–119
- Q427.1Shake Milton defensive rebound102–119
- Q430.1Dyson Daniels misses 26-foot three point jumper102–119
- Q436.1David Roddy defensive rebound102–119
- Q439.0Bronny James misses layup102–119
- Q458.1Dalton Knecht defensive rebound102–119
- Q41:03Garrison Mathews misses 26-foot three point jumper102–119
- Q41:11Dalton Knecht makes driving layup (Bronny James assists)102–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:27Dalton Knecht makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)ATL 42 – 48 LAL · LAL 63% → 70% +7LAL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q23:01Dalton Knecht makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot (Max Christie assists)ATL 52 – 58 LAL · LAL 63% → 71% +8LAL 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q22:35Jalen Johnson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)ATL 55 – 58 LAL · ATL 29% → 37% +8ATL 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q31:58Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point shot (Shake Milton assists)ATL 83 – 91 LAL · LAL 72% → 81% +9LAL 72% → 81%+9 pts
- Q325.0Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dalton Knecht assists)ATL 86 – 96 LAL · LAL 79% → 87% +8LAL 79% → 87%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -1.5
- ML ATL +120 / LAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1
- LAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 46.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- LAL -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 118.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +15 | −30 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 56.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.9 | Points scored | 112.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.4 | Points allowed | 114.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −2.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 113.621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.7 | Pace | 100.120th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–19 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders | 23–11 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.