Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tosan EvbuomwanPoints22
- Ben SimmonsAssists9
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds12
Jazz- Isaiah CollierPoints23
- Isaiah CollierAssists7
- Drew EubanksRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game111–112
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime111–112
- OT2.1Nets Full timeout111–112
- OT2.1Isaiah Collier makes driving layup (Brice Sensabaugh assists)111–112
- OT6.1Jazz Full timeout111–110
- OT6.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 2 of 2111–110
- OT6.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 1 of 2110–110
- OT6.1(00:06.4) [Jazz] COACH'S CHALLENGE (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL) [Jazz] charged with a timeout109–110
- OT6.1Jazz Full timeout109–110
- OT6.1Isaiah Collier shooting foul109–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT4:01Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointerBKN 104 – 105 UTAH · UTAH 38% → 59% +21UTAH 38% → 59%+21 pts
- OT1:48Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)BKN 108 – 110 UTAH · UTAH 41% → 72% +31UTAH 41% → 72%+31 pts
- OT6.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 1 of 2BKN 110 – 110 UTAH · BKN 13% → 50% +37BKN 13% → 50%+37 pts
- OT6.1Tosan Evbuomwan makes free throw 2 of 2BKN 111 – 110 UTAH · BKN 50% → 87% +37BKN 50% → 87%+37 pts
- OT2.1Isaiah Collier makes driving layup (Brice Sensabaugh assists)BKN 111 – 112 UTAH · UTAH 3% → 97% +95UTAH 3% → 97%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -3.5
- ML BKN +120 / UTAH -145
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- UTAH 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- UTAH: Elo 56.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -130
- BKN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 105.0 – 108.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 213.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1422 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −83 | −61 | BKN: Missing Cameron Johnson −17 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −13 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +48 Elo | UTAH 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | UTAH 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | UTAH 51.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30107.2 | Points scored | 110.921st of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 117.826th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | −6.926th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 109.520th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 116.429th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.4 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 2–1430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−83 Elo- Cameron Johnson right ankle sprain−17 Elo
Jazz
−61 Elo- Walker Kessler rest−13 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–18 | 19–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | — |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 19–17 |
| Overs–unders | 19–19 | 20–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.