Utah Jazz at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints34
- Collin SextonAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds16
Heat- Nikola JovicPoints17
- Tyler HerroAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–100
- Q419.2Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot136–100
- Q439.2Brice Sensabaugh makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshot136–98
- Q459.2Josh Christopher bad pass (Isaiah Collier steals)133–98
- Q41:12Brice Sensabaugh makes 12-foot two point shot133–98
- Q41:26Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2131–98
- Q41:26Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2131–97
- Q41:26Brice Sensabaugh shooting foul131–96
- Q41:31Keshad Johnson defensive rebound131–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q210:48Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three pointerUTAH 29 – 22 MIA · UTAH 36% → 43% +7UTAH 36% → 43%+7 pts
- Q28:54Nikola Jovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)UTAH 35 – 27 MIA · MIA 46% → 53% +8MIA 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q28:34Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three point jumper (John Collins assists)UTAH 38 – 27 MIA · UTAH 47% → 54% +8UTAH 47% → 54%+8 pts
- Q26:29Brice Sensabaugh makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 43 – 33 MIA · UTAH 46% → 53% +8UTAH 46% → 53%+8 pts
- Q23:52Keyonte George makes 24-foot three pointer (Lauri Markkanen assists)UTAH 50 – 35 MIA · UTAH 61% → 69% +8UTAH 61% → 69%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -8.5
- ML UTAH +300 / MIA -400
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -6.5
- MIA 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- MIA: Elo 73.9%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- MIA -320
- UTAH +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.0 – 117.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1378 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | −20 | UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −37 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +181 Elo | MIA 73.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 75.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 75.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.7 | Points scored | 111.419th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 109.37th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−9.0 | Margin | +2.110th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.2 | Offense rating | 112.711th of 30 |
| 30th of 30118.1 | Defense rating | 110.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 97.830th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–13 | Road vs home | 10–611th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−20 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−37 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–17 | 14–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | — | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 14–17 | 5–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–1 MIA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.