Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints23
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists7
- Tyler HerroRebounds7
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints23
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game97–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter97–92
- Q42.1Tyler Herro defensive rebound97–92
- Q45.1Lauri Markkanen misses 26-foot three point jumper97–92
- Q411.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 2 of 297–92
- Q411.1Nikola Jovic enters the game for Duncan Robinson96–92
- Q411.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes free throw 1 of 296–92
- Q411.1Walker Kessler personal take foul95–92
- Q413.0Duncan Robinson enters the game for Nikola Jovic95–92
- Q413.0Cody Williams enters the game for Kyle Filipowski95–92
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:38Tyler Herro makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 80 – 80 UTAH · MIA 40% → 56% +16MIA 40% → 56%+16 pts
- Q46:57Tyler Herro makes 30-foot three pointerMIA 83 – 82 UTAH · MIA 45% → 61% +16MIA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- Q42:53Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot pullup jump shotMIA 88 – 86 UTAH · MIA 54% → 70% +16MIA 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q41:35Isaiah Collier makes driving layup (Kyle Filipowski assists)MIA 90 – 88 UTAH · UTAH 11% → 26% +15UTAH 11% → 26%+15 pts
- Q41:03Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 25-foot three pointerMIA 93 – 88 UTAH · MIA 78% → 97% +19MIA 78% → 97%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML MIA -200 / UTAH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- MIA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 49.2%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -180
- UTAH +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 113.5 – 108.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | −6 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −40, Kevin Love −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +5 Elo | UTAH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 60.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 111.618th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 118.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −6.926th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Offense rating | 109.918th of 30 |
| 13th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.58th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–10 | Road vs home | 2–1330th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−30 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−40 Elo
- Kevin Love personal−1 Elo
Jazz
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–20 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | — |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 17–17 |
| Overs–unders | 20–15 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.