Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists20
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds9
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints35
- Isaiah CollierAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–121
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–121
- Q40.1Trae Young makes 50-foot three pointer124–121
- Q44.0Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)121–121
- Q48.1Jazz Full timeout121–118
- Q48.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2121–118
- Q48.1Clint Capela enters the game for Bogdan Bogdanovic120–118
- Q48.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2120–118
- Q48.1Cody Williams personal take foul119–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:24Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 113 – 112 UTAH · ATL 39% → 62% +23ATL 39% → 62%+23 pts
- Q42:52Trae Young makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 116 – 114 UTAH · ATL 45% → 70% +25ATL 45% → 70%+25 pts
- Q41:57De'Andre Hunter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 119 – 116 UTAH · ATL 53% → 80% +27ATL 53% → 80%+27 pts
- Q44.0Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointer (Cody Williams assists)ATL 121 – 121 UTAH · UTAH <1% → 49% +49UTAH <1% → 49%+49 pts
- Q40.1Trae Young makes 50-foot three pointerATL 124 – 121 UTAH · ATL 50% → 100% +50ATL 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -5.5
- ML ATL -220 / UTAH +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -1.5
- ATL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 44.9%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- ATL -192
- UTAH +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 122.5 – 117.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −4 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +36 Elo | UTAH 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 111.319th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 118.426th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.6 | Margin | −7.126th of 30 |
| 17th of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 109.720th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 101.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 17th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 2–1230th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–21 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 5–11 | — |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 24–12 | 19–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 UTAH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.