Utah Jazz at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Brice SensabaughPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds17
Magic- Jett HowardPoints21
- Trevelin QueenAssists6
- Goga BitadzeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–92
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–92
- Q417.1Wendell Carter Jr. turnover105–92
- Q417.1Wendell Carter Jr. offensive foul105–92
- Q420.1Johnny Juzang makes free throw 2 of 2105–92
- Q420.1Johnny Juzang makes free throw 1 of 2104–92
- Q420.1Cory Joseph personal foul103–92
- Q426.1Trevelin Queen makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jett Howard assists)103–92
- Q430.0Isaiah Collier turnover103–89
- Q430.0Isaiah Collier offensive foul103–89
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:07Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three pointerUTAH 55 – 50 ORL · UTAH 38% → 48% +10UTAH 38% → 48%+10 pts
- Q34:59Johnny Juzang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 60 – 52 ORL · UTAH 50% → 60% +10UTAH 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q34:08Jett Howard makes 27-foot three point jumperUTAH 60 – 56 ORL · ORL 42% → 53% +11ORL 42% → 53%+11 pts
- Q33:05Wendell Carter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trevelin Queen assists)UTAH 64 – 59 ORL · ORL 37% → 48% +11ORL 37% → 48%+11 pts
- Q32:33Cory Joseph makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jett Howard assists)UTAH 66 – 62 ORL · ORL 40% → 51% +11ORL 40% → 51%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML UTAH +320 / ORL -425
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 74.0%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -340
- UTAH +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 100.0 – 109.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −43 | −62 | UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −41 · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +181 Elo | ORL 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 76.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 105.630th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 103.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +2.39th of 30 |
| 20th of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 107.226th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 105.03rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.528th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 25th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 13–44th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−43 Elo- Lauri Markkanen low back muscle spasms−41 Elo
Magic
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–17 | 21–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 15–6 |
| Underdog | 15–17 | 6–9 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 15–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 ORL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.