Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Tristan da SilvaPoints25
- Cole AnthonyAssists11
- Goga BitadzeRebounds13
Raptors- Jakob PoeltlPoints25
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists11
- Scottie BarnesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–97
- Q48.2Jakob Poeltl makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Immanuel Quickley assists)106–97
- Q412.1shot clock turnover106–95
- Q436.1Ochai Agbaji makes two point shot (Gradey Dick assists)106–95
- Q440.1Tristan da Silva lost ball turnover (Gradey Dick steals)106–93
- Q41:01Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 2 of 2106–93
- Q41:01Jakob Poeltl makes free throw 1 of 2106–92
- Q41:01Cole Anthony shooting foul106–91
- Q41:08Trevelin Queen makes 1-foot driving dunk (Goga Bitadze assists)106–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:46Caleb Houstan makes 24-foot three point shot (Kentavious Caldwell-Pope assists)ORL 14 – 11 TOR · ORL 53% → 60% +7ORL 53% → 60%+7 pts
- Q16:34Ochai Agbaji makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)ORL 14 – 14 TOR · TOR 40% → 47% +7TOR 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q15:05Caleb Houstan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)ORL 17 – 16 TOR · ORL 49% → 55% +7ORL 49% → 55%+7 pts
- Q14:18Tristan da Silva makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)ORL 20 – 16 TOR · ORL 55% → 62% +7ORL 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q13:17Jonathan Isaac makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cory Joseph assists)ORL 25 – 18 TOR · ORL 62% → 68% +6ORL 62% → 68%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -125 / TOR +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 64.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 108.0 – 106.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −48 | −17 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +107 Elo | ORL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 63.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30105.6 | Points scored | 111.617th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30103.6 | Points allowed | 119.126th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −7.426th of 30 |
| 26th of 30106.9 | Offense rating | 108.024th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.8 | Defense rating | 115.226th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.8 | Pace | 102.46th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–11 | Road vs home | 7–1123rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–15 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 15–20 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–0 TOR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.