Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Nikola JovicPoints20
- Duncan RobinsonAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints31
- Draymond GreenAssists10
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–98
- Q40.0shot clock turnover114–98
- Q424.0Lindy Waters III makes 2-foot layup (Moses Moody assists)114–98
- Q428.0Warriors offensive team rebound114–96
- Q430.1Gui Santos misses 23-foot three point jumper114–96
- Q436.1Pelle Larsson enters the game for Duncan Robinson114–96
- Q436.1Josh Christopher enters the game for Bam Adebayo114–96
- Q436.1Kel'el Ware enters the game for Nikola Jovic114–96
- Q436.1Keshad Johnson enters the game for Terry Rozier114–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q352.1Tyler Herro makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 84 – 78 GS · MIA 47% → 59% +12MIA 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q411:32Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 84 – 81 GS · GS 39% → 51% +13GS 39% → 51%+13 pts
- Q411:13Alec Burks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 87 – 81 GS · MIA 49% → 62% +13MIA 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q49:13Nikola Jovic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 90 – 86 GS · MIA 42% → 57% +14MIA 42% → 57%+14 pts
- Q48:47Nikola Jovic makes 24-foot three point shot (Duncan Robinson assists)MIA 93 – 86 GS · MIA 57% → 71% +14MIA 57% → 71%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- GS -9.5
- ML MIA +300 / GS -380
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4
- GS 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.7 pts
- GS: Elo 66.3%, market 76.0%
- Fair odds
- GS -317
- MIA +317 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 103.0 – 112.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −34 | −26 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +118 Elo | GS 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 68.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 76.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.3 | Points scored | 112.214th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 111.012th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 110.118th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.0 | Defense rating | 108.99th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 101.49th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–10 | Road vs home | 10–920th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−34 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−39 Elo
Warriors
−26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–20 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–1 GS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.