Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points23
- Desmond BaneAssists10
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Warriors- Andrew WigginsPoints24
- Dennis SchroderAssists9
- Trayce Jackson-DavisRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–121
- Q422.1Jaylen Wells makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jake LaRavia assists)113–121
- Q426.0Grizzlies offensive team rebound111–121
- Q429.0Jaylen Wells misses 22-foot pullup jump shot111–121
- Q433.1Grizzlies Full timeout111–121
- Q433.1Jaren Jackson Jr. defensive rebound111–121
- Q434.1Kyle Anderson misses free throw 1 of 1111–121
- Q434.1Brandon Clarke shooting foul111–121
- Q434.1Kyle Anderson makes layup (Andrew Wiggins assists)111–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:55Draymond Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trayce Jackson-Davis assists)MEM 91 – 95 GS · GS 58% → 70% +12GS 58% → 70%+12 pts
- Q410:08Dennis Schroder makes 30-foot three pointerMEM 94 – 98 GS · GS 58% → 71% +13GS 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q47:41Lindy Waters III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MEM 97 – 106 GS · GS 80% → 89% +9GS 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q42:33Jake LaRavia makes driving layup (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 109 – 112 GS · MEM 5% → 24% +18MEM 5% → 24%+18 pts
- Q42:08Lindy Waters III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)MEM 109 – 115 GS · GS 78% → 94% +15GS 78% → 94%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML MEM +125 / GS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2
- GS 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.0 pts
- GS: Elo 42.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- GS -135
- MEM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 113.5 – 117.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MEM on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +87 | −52 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +53 Elo | MEM 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 53.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.5 | Points scored | 112.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points allowed | 110.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+8.7 | Margin | +1.910th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 110.216th of 30 |
| 4th of 30106.5 | Defense rating | 108.37th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.8 | Pace | 101.49th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 9–819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+87 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–12 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–8 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–13 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–3 GS in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.