Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaylen WellsPoints30
- Luke KennardAssists9
- Luke KennardRebounds8
Kings- Malik MonkPoints31
- Malik MonkAssists6
- Domantas SabonisRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–138
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–138
- Q40.0Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)133–138
- Q44.0Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan130–138
- Q44.0De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2130–138
- Q44.0De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 1 of 2130–137
- Q44.0Scotty Pippen Jr. personal foul130–136
- Q45.2Scotty Pippen Jr. enters the game for Jay Huff130–136
- Q45.2Brandon Clarke enters the game for Luke Kennard130–136
- Q45.2Trey Lyles enters the game for Keon Ellis130–136
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:23Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 28-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 108 – 109 SAC · MEM 27% → 41% +14MEM 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q47:23Malik Monk makes 22-foot three point jumper (Domantas Sabonis assists)MEM 110 – 112 SAC · SAC 49% → 64% +16SAC 49% → 64%+16 pts
- Q46:18Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)MEM 114 – 115 SAC · MEM 25% → 41% +15MEM 25% → 41%+15 pts
- Q45:57DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keon Ellis assists)MEM 114 – 118 SAC · SAC 59% → 75% +16SAC 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q45:20Malik Monk makes 25-foot three pointer (DeMar DeRozan assists)MEM 116 – 121 SAC · SAC 65% → 81% +15SAC 65% → 81%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML MEM +140 / SAC -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -2.5
- SAC 41%
- Ratings vs. market
- −19.5 pts
- SAC: Elo 40.7%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- SAC -151
- MEM +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 119.5 – 123.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +22 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · SAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +66 Elo | MEM 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.2 | Points scored | 114.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 113.517th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+9.1 | Margin | +1.214th of 30 |
| 6th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 112.88th of 30 |
| 4th of 30105.9 | Defense rating | 111.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.9 | Pace | 100.815th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 8–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–11 | 12–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 17–8 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–13 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 1–3 SAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.