Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Malik MonkPoints26
- Malik MonkAssists12
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints26
- Draymond GreenAssists4
- Stephen CurryRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–99
- Q420.1Orlando Robinson defensive rebound129–99
- Q423.1Pat Spencer misses free throw 2 of 2129–99
- Q423.1Pat Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2129–99
- Q423.1Doug McDermott shooting foul129–98
- Q428.1Moses Moody defensive rebound129–98
- Q430.1Orlando Robinson misses alley oop dunk shot129–98
- Q449.2Moses Moody makes two point shot129–98
- Q41:02Doug McDermott makes 26-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)129–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:55Kevin Huerter makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Keegan Murray assists)SAC 20 – 12 GS · SAC 53% → 59% +7SAC 53% → 59%+7 pts
- Q29:18Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)SAC 40 – 32 GS · GS 31% → 38% +7GS 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q28:50Stephen Curry makes 30-foot three pointerSAC 40 – 35 GS · GS 38% → 45% +7GS 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q28:14Keegan Murray makes 25-foot three point shot (Domantas Sabonis assists)SAC 45 – 36 GS · SAC 58% → 65% +7SAC 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q27:56Malik Monk makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 48 – 36 GS · SAC 65% → 72% +7SAC 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- GS -3.5
- ML SAC +135 / GS -160
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -3
- GS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- GS: Elo 61.9%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -145
- SAC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 111.0 – 114.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −32 | −14 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · GS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +85 Elo | GS 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 55.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 112.612th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 110.59th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +2.19th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 110.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 108.47th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.48th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 9th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 10–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–22 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–18 | 15–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–2 GS in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.