Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints26
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists10
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints30
- Domantas SabonisAssists11
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Last plays
- 2OT0.0End of Game118–123
- 2OT0.0End of the 2nd Overtime118–123
- 2OT2.1Trey Lyles defensive rebound118–123
- 2OT2.1Bam Adebayo misses 25-foot three point jumper118–123
- 2OT7.0Nikola Jovic offensive rebound118–123
- 2OT8.1Tyler Herro misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot118–123
- 2OT12.1Trey Lyles enters the game for DeMar DeRozan118–123
- 2OT12.1Nikola Jovic enters the game for Haywood Highsmith118–123
- 2OT12.1Heat Full timeout118–123
- 2OT12.1DeMar DeRozan makes 17-foot step back jumpshot118–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- OT2:57Terry Rozier makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 107 – 104 SAC · MIA 47% → 71% +24MIA 47% → 71%+24 pts
- OT41.1Domantas Sabonis makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)MIA 110 – 111 SAC · SAC 20% → 68% +48SAC 20% → 68%+48 pts
- OT18.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 1 of 2MIA 111 – 111 SAC · MIA 25% → 49% +24MIA 25% → 49%+24 pts
- OT18.1Terry Rozier makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 112 – 111 SAC · MIA 49% → 74% +25MIA 49% → 74%+25 pts
- OT0.2Keon Ellis makes free throw 2 of 2MIA 112 – 112 SAC · SAC <1% → 50% +50SAC <1% → 50%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -3.5
- ML MIA +150 / SAC -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -0.5
- SAC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- SAC: Elo 52.8%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SAC -161
- MIA +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 108.0 – 111.5 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −33 | −23 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +20 Elo | SAC 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.1 | Points scored | 115.89th of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.1 | Points allowed | 113.717th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.110th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 113.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 111.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 306–9 | Road vs home | 9–1222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−33 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−39 Elo
Kings
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–19 | 14–22 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 11–18 |
| Underdog | 5–7 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 SAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.