Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints24
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds13
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Mason PlumleeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–114
- Q42.1Walker Kessler makes two point shot106–114
- Q45.1Walker Kessler offensive rebound104–114
- Q47.1Cody Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper104–114
- Q415.1Bradley Beal makes free throw 2 of 2104–114
- Q415.1Bradley Beal makes free throw 1 of 2104–113
- Q415.1Lauri Markkanen personal take foul104–112
- Q417.1Walker Kessler makes layup (Collin Sexton assists)104–112
- Q420.2Collin Sexton offensive rebound102–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:10Ryan Dunn makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)UTAH 66 – 70 PHX · PHX 76% → 83% +7PHX 76% → 83%+7 pts
- Q34:28Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Grayson Allen assists)UTAH 70 – 81 PHX · PHX 86% → 94% +8PHX 86% → 94%+8 pts
- Q48:36Drew Eubanks makes 6-foot layup (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)UTAH 88 – 91 PHX · UTAH 15% → 22% +7UTAH 15% → 22%+7 pts
- Q47:38Grayson Allen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)UTAH 88 – 94 PHX · PHX 78% → 88% +10PHX 78% → 88%+10 pts
- Q47:08Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)UTAH 88 – 97 PHX · PHX 88% → 94% +6PHX 88% → 94%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -10.5
- ML UTAH +450 / PHX -700
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3
- PHX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 62.4%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- PHX -481
- UTAH +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.5 – 120.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −2 | UTAH: Usual rotation · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +88 Elo | PHX 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 77.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 112.114th of 30 |
| 26th of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 114.019th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.9 | Margin | −1.919th of 30 |
| 21st of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 112.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 114.624th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 11–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–17 | 13–23 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | — | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 18–17 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 16–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–6 PHX in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.