Phoenix Suns at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints39
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Mason PlumleeRebounds12
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints32
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–115
- Q45.1shot clock turnover104–115
- Q429.1Grayson Allen out of bounds bad pass turnover104–115
- Q438.1shot clock turnover104–115
- Q438.1Cody Martin offensive rebound104–115
- Q440.1LaMelo Ball misses 31-foot three point jumper104–115
- Q41:03LaMelo Ball defensive rebound104–115
- Q41:05Bradley Beal misses 30-foot three point pullup jump shot104–115
- Q41:09Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2104–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:38Grayson Allen makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jusuf Nurkic assists)PHX 74 – 80 CHA · PHX 27% → 36% +10PHX 27% → 36%+10 pts
- Q33:18LaMelo Ball makes 23-foot three point jumperPHX 74 – 83 CHA · CHA 64% → 74% +10CHA 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q33:00Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)PHX 77 – 83 CHA · PHX 26% → 36% +10PHX 26% → 36%+10 pts
- Q32:49Nick Smith Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)PHX 77 – 86 CHA · CHA 64% → 74% +10CHA 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q411:06Nick Smith Jr. makes 26-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)PHX 83 – 93 CHA · CHA 72% → 82% +10CHA 72% → 82%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -200 / CHA +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.2%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- PHX -177
- CHA +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 115.5 – 111.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1314 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −5 | +5 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +94 Elo | PHX 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30112.0 | Points scored | 105.829th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 112.515th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.9 | Margin | −6.725th of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 105.229th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 111.817th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.8 | Pace | 99.622nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 22nd of 306–10 | Road vs home | 5–1327th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–22 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–12 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 16–18 | 12–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–0 CHA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.