Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints24
- Cody MartinAssists5
- Mark WilliamsRebounds9
Cavaliers- Darius GarlandPoints25
- Caris LeVertAssists6
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–115
- Q416.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound105–115
- Q419.1Nick Smith Jr. misses 15-foot two point shot105–115
- Q432.1Tidjane Salaun defensive rebound105–115
- Q434.1Tristan Thompson misses 10-foot two point shot105–115
- Q453.1Cody Martin makes dunk105–115
- Q455.1JT Thor bad pass (Cody Martin steals)103–115
- Q458.1Ty Jerome offensive rebound103–115
- Q41:00Ty Jerome misses driving floating jump shot103–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:42Dean Wade makes 24-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)CHA 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 89% → 92% +3CLE 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q15:45Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 18 – 16 CLE · CHA 11% → 15% +4CHA 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q14:33Georges Niang makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Max Strus assists)CHA 18 – 18 CLE · CLE 85% → 87% +3CLE 85% → 87%+3 pts
- Q12:06Georges Niang makes 24-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)CHA 18 – 25 CLE · CLE 91% → 94% +3CLE 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q11:10LaMelo Ball makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 23 – 27 CLE · CHA 7% → 9% +3CHA 7% → 9%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -16.5
- ML CHA +800 / CLE -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -14.5
- CLE 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 91.1%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -840
- CHA +840 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 107.5 – 124.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1315 | 1646 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | +58 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +404 Elo | CLE 91.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 90.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 90.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.8 | Points scored | 122.72nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.4 | Points allowed | 110.812th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.6 | Margin | +11.91st of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 120.41st of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 108.89th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.5 | Pace | 101.97th of 30 |
| 28th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–13 | Road vs home | 17–11st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–16 | 25–9 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 22–9 |
| Underdog | 17–13 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–21 | 23–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–3 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.