Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Evan MobleyPoints34
- Darius GarlandAssists9
- Evan MobleyRebounds10
Mavericks- Quentin GrimesPoints26
- Quentin GrimesAssists6
- Dereck Lively IIRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–122
- Q41.1Jaylon Tyson defensive rebound134–122
- Q45.1Markieff Morris misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot134–122
- Q410.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper defensive goaltending violation134–122
- Q410.1JT Thor makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Jaylon Tyson assists)134–122
- Q416.0Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes driving dunk132–122
- Q418.0Jaylon Tyson lost ball turnover (Olivier-Maxence Prosper steals)132–120
- Q420.1Tristan Thompson defensive rebound132–120
- Q424.1Markieff Morris misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot132–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:36Dean Wade makes 25-foot three point shot (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 3 – 2 DAL · CLE 75% → 79% +5CLE 75% → 79%+5 pts
- Q17:17P.J. Washington makes 24-foot three point jumper (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)CLE 12 – 10 DAL · DAL 15% → 20% +4DAL 15% → 20%+4 pts
- Q16:31Caris LeVert makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 15 – 11 DAL · CLE 79% → 83% +5CLE 79% → 83%+5 pts
- Q13:04Darius Garland makes 24-foot three point jumperCLE 20 – 21 DAL · CLE 68% → 74% +6CLE 68% → 74%+6 pts
- Q12:35Georges Niang makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)CLE 23 – 21 DAL · CLE 74% → 79% +5CLE 74% → 79%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -9.5
- ML CLE -450 / DAL +340
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -5
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.7%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -360
- DAL +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 117.5 – 108.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1639 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | −107 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · DAL: Missing Naji Marshall −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | CLE crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +145 Elo | CLE 69.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 72.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.4 | Points scored | 116.68th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 111.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+11.9 | Margin | +5.17th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.2 | Offense rating | 114.85th of 30 |
| 9th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 109.811th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−107 Elo- Naji Marshall suspended by league−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–9 | 19–15 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–9 | 11–10 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 22–11 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.