Phoenix Suns at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Bradley BealPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists10
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds7
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists10
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–99
- Q43.1Kevin Durant defensive rebound109–99
- Q45.1Tyrese Maxey misses running pullup jump shot109–99
- Q410.0Devin Booker bad pass (Tyrese Maxey steals)109–99
- Q417.1Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot109–99
- Q424.0Bradley Beal makes layup (Kevin Durant assists)109–96
- Q447.2Bradley Beal defensive rebound107–96
- Q447.2Kelly Oubre Jr. misses driving layup107–96
- Q459.176ers Full timeout107–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:03Paul George makes 28-foot three pointer (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHX 45 – 49 PHI · PHI 50% → 59% +9PHI 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q37:29Devin Booker makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 55 – 52 PHI · PHX 53% → 62% +10PHX 53% → 62%+10 pts
- Q30.1Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 31-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHX 78 – 73 PHI · PHI 19% → 28% +10PHI 19% → 28%+10 pts
- Q411:43Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Guerschon Yabusele assists)PHX 78 – 76 PHI · PHI 28% → 40% +12PHI 28% → 40%+12 pts
- Q410:18Ryan Dunn makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 84 – 77 PHI · PHX 69% → 80% +11PHX 69% → 80%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -1.5
- ML PHX -130 / PHI +110
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- PHX: Elo 51.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHX -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 112.0 – 110.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −9 | −45 | PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Andre Drummond −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +11 Elo | PHX 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 53.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30112.1 | Points scored | 107.627th of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 110.811th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.3 | Margin | −3.122nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30112.7 | Offense rating | 108.124th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 111.214th of 30 |
| 24th of 3098.9 | Pace | 98.528th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 305–10 | Road vs home | 5–924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−45 Elo- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 11–22 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–12 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 5–10 | 8–11 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–1 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.