Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints21
- Trae YoungAssists7
- Clint CapelaRebounds11
Suns- Bradley BealPoints25
- Devin BookerAssists12
- Mason PlumleeRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–123
- Q44.0Devin Booker defensive rebound115–123
- Q45.1Trae Young misses driving layup115–123
- Q416.0Devin Booker makes free throw 2 of 2115–123
- Q416.0Suns offensive team rebound115–122
- Q416.0Devin Booker misses free throw 1 of 2115–122
- Q416.0De'Andre Hunter personal foul115–122
- Q425.1De'Andre Hunter lost ball turnover (Bradley Beal steals)115–122
- Q435.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Oso Ighodaro115–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q243.1Dyson Daniels makes 23-foot three point jumper (De'Andre Hunter assists)ATL 72 – 66 PHX · ATL 45% → 54% +9ATL 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q310:45Tyus Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)ATL 72 – 75 PHX · PHX 63% → 71% +8PHX 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q39:40Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)ATL 75 – 75 PHX · ATL 29% → 38% +8ATL 29% → 38%+8 pts
- Q31:58Bradley Beal makes 22-foot three point shot (Grayson Allen assists)ATL 88 – 94 PHX · PHX 71% → 80% +9PHX 71% → 80%+9 pts
- Q411:08Grayson Allen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bradley Beal assists)ATL 94 – 101 PHX · PHX 74% → 84% +9PHX 74% → 84%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML ATL +200 / PHX -245
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -1.5
- PHX 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- PHX: Elo 56.2%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- PHX -213
- ATL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 116.5 – 122.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | −5 | ATL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +43 Elo | PHX 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 111.816th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 113.919th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.5 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 16th of 30110.3 | Offense rating | 112.310th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 114.524th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.8 | Pace | 98.924th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–825th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 10–818th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–22 | 12–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–12 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 10–10 | 5–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–12 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.