Miami Heat at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints32
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds13
Clippers- Norman PowellPoints29
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds20
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game98–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter98–109
- Q46.1shot clock turnover98–109
- Q430.1Kel'el Ware makes 26-foot three point jumper (Haywood Highsmith assists)98–109
- Q436.1Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound95–109
- Q439.0Kevin Porter Jr. misses 16-foot step back jumpshot95–109
- Q451.1Ivica Zubac defensive rebound95–109
- Q452.1Kel'el Ware misses dunk95–109
- Q452.1Kel'el Ware offensive rebound95–109
- Q456.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses 9-foot two point shot95–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q311:15Haywood Highsmith makes 27-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 51 – 45 LAC · MIA 42% → 51% +9MIA 42% → 51%+9 pts
- Q39:10Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointer (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 56 – 49 LAC · MIA 47% → 56% +9MIA 47% → 56%+9 pts
- Q38:44Terry Rozier makes 25-foot three pointer (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 59 – 51 LAC · MIA 50% → 59% +9MIA 50% → 59%+9 pts
- Q38:10James Harden makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 59 – 54 LAC · LAC 40% → 50% +10LAC 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q37:20James Harden makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 59 – 59 LAC · LAC 55% → 65% +9LAC 55% → 65%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML MIA +250 / LAC -320
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 65.6%, market 72.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -267
- MIA +267 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 104.0 – 111.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +23 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −41, Bam Adebayo −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +112 Elo | LAC 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 64.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 72.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30111.2 | Points scored | 108.923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 108.45th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.514th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 108.822nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 108.37th of 30 |
| 30th of 3098.1 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 309–10 | Road vs home | 12–66th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−40 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−41 Elo
- Bam Adebayo lower back injury−21 Elo
Clippers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 16–21 | 22–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 9–4 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 13–11 |
| Overs–unders | 20–17 | 14–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–2 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.