Miami Heat at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints32
- Bam AdebayoAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints28
- Shaedon SharpeAssists5
- Deni AvdijaRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–98
- Q414.0Jabari Walker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Justin Minaya assists)119–98
- Q414.0Justin Minaya offensive rebound119–95
- Q414.1Justin Minaya misses tip shot119–95
- Q414.1Justin Minaya offensive rebound119–95
- Q420.0Rayan Rupert misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–95
- Q428.0Kel'el Ware makes dunk (Josh Christopher assists)119–95
- Q432.1Rayan Rupert lost ball turnover (Jaime Jaquez Jr. steals)117–95
- Q438.1Jaime Jaquez Jr. bad pass (Justin Minaya steals)117–95
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:59Anfernee Simons makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)MIA 70 – 67 POR · POR 24% → 32% +8POR 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q36:49Bam Adebayo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 73 – 67 POR · MIA 68% → 76% +8MIA 68% → 76%+8 pts
- Q34:21Anfernee Simons makes 29-foot three point jumper (Toumani Camara assists)MIA 80 – 75 POR · POR 18% → 26% +8POR 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q33:54Nikola Jovic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotMIA 83 – 75 POR · MIA 74% → 82% +8MIA 74% → 82%+8 pts
- Q346.2Nikola Jovic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Terry Rozier assists)MIA 92 – 83 POR · MIA 78% → 86% +8MIA 78% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -4.5
- ML MIA -190 / POR +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -3.5
- MIA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 63.4%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -170
- POR +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 112.0 – 107.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −25 | −21 | MIA: Missing Jimmy Butler III −39 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · POR: Missing Deandre Ayton −17 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +95 Elo | MIA 63.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 63.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 63.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30110.9 | Points scored | 108.525th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 116.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −7.927th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 107.426th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.2 | Defense rating | 115.226th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.912th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 19th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 8–820th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−25 Elo- Jimmy Butler III suspended by team−39 Elo
Trail Blazers
−21 Elo- Deandre Ayton sore left calf−17 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–21 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–8 | 20–15 |
| Overs–unders | 20–16 | 19–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–0 POR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.